Hi there
Do any of you attend or organise IPv4 depletion parties?
We had had central registry depletion party on the 28th of January. With free pizza and T-Shirts [1]. And our APNIC depletion party is Friday the 6th.
It will be RIPE next [2].
[1] http://dranklokaaldeww.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/28-1-sput%e2%80%99s-ipv4-depletion-borrel/
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdranklokaaldeww.wordpress.com%2F2011%2F01%2F21%2F28-1-sput%25e2%2580%2599s-ipv4-depletion-borrel%2F&act=url
[2] http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2011-02/rir.jpg
Regards,
Rob
Hi there
Ripe will deplete soon [1] [2]. So that's an other IPv4 depletion party.
We will have one in a local bar [3].
[1] http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
[2] http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/plotend.png
[3] http://dranklokaaldeww.wordpress.com/
Regards,
Rob
Quote from: sput on July 06, 2012, 11:32:17 AMRipe will deplete soon
Yes, but how soon? If you look at the numbers published by RIPE (http://www.ripe.net/internet-coordination/ipv4-exhaustion/ipv4-available-pool-graph), it looks like they are going to last a couple of months longer. I still haven't found anybody who could explain the reason for the numbers being different.
The numbers from RIPE dated 2nd of July show 10.13 million consumed in 77 days (decrease from 40.18 to 30.05). Extrapolating from that it will be 100 days before they hit 16.78 million, which will put it at the 10th of October. How did Geoff Huston end at 28th of July?
Hi there
He analysed the distribution rate and made a prediction based on how the distribution rate varies over time.
Hoarding will lead to an earlier date. The economic crisis leads to a later date.
The depletion date based on the last 11 weeks varies a lot. During the past six months anything from august to December. Currently it's at the 14th of October.
With only .74 /8 (putting the mouse pointer on the graph will get you the /8 value) to go, a bit of hoarding might put Geoff Huston spot on.
Regards,
Rob
It's not just the depletion date where I get a different result. Even the current size of the pool (which is supposed to be a known number, not subject to any predictions) differs between the two sources. According to RIPEs latest number from today, they have 1.74 /8s left. According to Huston they have only 1.6523. The difference between those two numbers is more than consumption per week.
I agree there is a possibility of hoarding as the deadline approaches. But anybody who can produce the justification for another allocation would probably be hoarding already, they don't gain anything from waiting until closer to depletion.
Hi there
Apparently there is stuff in the RIPE database that shouldn't be there;
http://www.cidr-report.org/bogons/rir-data.html
Hoarding is also influenced by psychological factors.
Regards,
Rob
Quote from: sput on July 10, 2012, 08:37:23 AMApparently there is stuff in the RIPE database that shouldn't be there
Interesting. Not sure what to make of it though. Does it mean anything that more than 90% of the entries on the list relate to RIPE?
Hi there
I would have to write a bit of software to parse the page in order to see if it's actually more then 90%.
Anyway, Geoff increased the depletion date to the 30th. Probably not enough.
Regards,
Rob
Hi there
The 30th is two weeks from now. So Geoff Huston, who is usually spot on, is wrong this time.
The average depletion rate over past 11 weeks varies a lot. However, the average since the beginning of this year hovers around mid October. The 13th or 14th.
So here it is. My personal prediction: Mid October.
Regards,
Rob
Geoff Huston has updated his estimate. The estimate no longer says end of July, now it says 4th of October. His number for the current size of the RIPE pool is still a little bit lower than the official numbers from RIPE though.
Hi there
It's the 5th now.
I stick to mid october.
Regards,
Rob
Hi there
RIPE just depleted;
https://www.ripe.net/internet-coordination/news/ripe-ncc-begins-to-allocate-ipv4-address-space-from-the-last-8
Party!
Regards,
Rob
Quote from: sput on September 14, 2012, 08:25:53 AMRIPE just depleted
That surprise me. I was expecting them to last half a week more. Did somebody submit a legitimate request for a /12 or did a lot of people realize they'd better hurry up and submit requests while there were still addresses to be had?
Chatting with someone that had a request in for a /21 before this announcement, they got told by RIPE today that all current requests are canceled, and they have to apply for /22 now.
Quote from: broquea on September 14, 2012, 09:09:11 AMthey got told by RIPE today that all current requests are canceled, and they have to apply for /22 now.
That sounds sensible. The criteria for receiving a /22 now is not the same as the criteria for receiving addresses before. So the existing request might not apply anymore. And the extra delay introduced by this isn't going to mean that you aren't getting the /22. Those remaining /22s should last a while.
But wasn't there some RIR that would still process applications, and instead of receiving addresses, you'd receive the right to buy them at market price, if there is a seller?
Hi there
Quote from: kasperd on September 14, 2012, 08:43:40 AM
Quote from: sput on September 14, 2012, 08:25:53 AMRIPE just depleted
That surprise me. I was expecting them to last half a week more. Did somebody submit a legitimate request for a /12 or did a lot of people realize they'd better hurry up and submit requests while there were still addresses to be had?
There where some large allocations to the middle east. Iran, if I remember correctly.
Our party has a (Dutch) facebook page;
http://www.facebook.com/events/197537177045752
/. has always been hostile towards IPv6. This applies both to the guy who runs it, and most of those who submit comments;
http://tech.slashdot.org/story/12/09/14/1426232/ripe-region-runs-out-of-ipv4-addresses
Their attitude is a complete mystery to me.
Regards,
Rob
Quote from: sput on September 16, 2012, 03:53:09 AM/. has always been hostile towards IPv6. This applies both to the guy who runs it, and most of those who submit comments
You'd have expected a site of that kind to be an early adopter of IPv6, but it was not. Seems they haven't even started thinking about IPv6. But it takes just one stupid person in a position to make decisions, in order to stop a site from moving to IPv6.
I think most of the people posting there don't know much about what they are talking about, but that never stopped anybody from having an opinion. But there is also many sensible people posting there, such as those who know the limits of their own knowledge and those who actually know, what they are talking about.
The problem is those people who have a strong opinion and won't accept that they could be mistaken. I'm not sure how large a fraction of the users, those make up.
There is also the entire Stockholm syndrome thing, some people actually think NAT is a good idea and the lack of NAT in IPv6 is a problem.