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Author Topic: IPv4 depletion parties  (Read 9766 times)

sput

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IPv4 depletion parties
« on: May 03, 2011, 04:35:17 AM »

Hi there


Do any of you attend or organise IPv4 depletion parties?
We had had central registry depletion party on the 28th of January. With free pizza and T-Shirts [1]. And our APNIC depletion party is Friday the 6th.
It will be RIPE next [2].

[1] http://dranklokaaldeww.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/28-1-sput%e2%80%99s-ipv4-depletion-borrel/
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdranklokaaldeww.wordpress.com%2F2011%2F01%2F21%2F28-1-sput%25e2%2580%2599s-ipv4-depletion-borrel%2F&act=url
[2] http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2011-02/rir.jpg


Regards,
Rob

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sput

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2012, 11:32:17 AM »

Hi there


Ripe will deplete soon [1] [2]. So that's an other IPv4 depletion party.
We will have one in a local bar [3].

[1] http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
[2] http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/plotend.png
[3] http://dranklokaaldeww.wordpress.com/


Regards,
Rob
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kasperd

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2012, 02:41:01 AM »

Ripe will deplete soon
Yes, but how soon? If you look at the numbers published by RIPE, it looks like they are going to last a couple of months longer. I still haven't found anybody who could explain the reason for the numbers being different.

The numbers from RIPE dated 2nd of July show 10.13 million consumed in 77 days (decrease from 40.18 to 30.05). Extrapolating from that it will be 100 days before they hit 16.78 million, which will put it at the 10th of October. How did Geoff Huston end at 28th of July?
« Last Edit: July 08, 2012, 02:50:09 AM by kasperd »
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sput

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2012, 02:26:23 AM »

Hi there


He analysed the distribution rate and made a prediction based on how the distribution rate varies over time.
Hoarding will lead to an earlier date. The economic crisis leads to a later date.
The depletion date based on the last 11 weeks varies a lot. During the past six months anything from august to December. Currently it's  at the 14th of October.
With only .74 /8 (putting the mouse pointer on the graph will get you the /8 value) to go, a bit of hoarding might put Geoff Huston spot on.


Regards,
Rob
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kasperd

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2012, 04:59:10 AM »

It's not just the depletion date where I get a different result. Even the current size of the pool (which is supposed to be a known number, not subject to any predictions) differs between the two sources. According to RIPEs latest number from today, they have 1.74 /8s left. According to Huston they have only 1.6523. The difference between those two numbers is more than consumption per week.

I agree there is a possibility of hoarding as the deadline approaches. But anybody who can produce the justification for another allocation would probably be hoarding already, they don't gain anything from waiting until closer to depletion.
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sput

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2012, 08:37:23 AM »

Hi there


Apparently there is stuff in the RIPE database that shouldn't be there;
http://www.cidr-report.org/bogons/rir-data.html

Hoarding is also influenced by psychological factors.


Regards,
Rob
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kasperd

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2012, 03:09:09 PM »

Apparently there is stuff in the RIPE database that shouldn't be there
Interesting. Not sure what to make of it though. Does it mean anything that more than 90% of the entries on the list relate to RIPE?
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sput

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2012, 03:32:20 AM »

Hi there


I would have to write a bit of software to parse the page in order to see if it's actually more then 90%.
Anyway, Geoff increased the depletion date to the 30th. Probably not enough.


Regards,
Rob
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sput

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2012, 02:10:48 AM »

Hi there


The 30th is two weeks from now. So Geoff Huston, who is usually spot on, is wrong this time.
The average depletion rate over past 11 weeks varies a lot. However, the average since the beginning of this year hovers around mid October. The 13th or 14th.
So here it is. My personal prediction: Mid October.


Regards,
Rob
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kasperd

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2012, 07:17:46 AM »

Geoff Huston has updated his estimate. The estimate no longer says end of July, now it says 4th of October. His number for the current size of the RIPE pool is still a little bit lower than the official numbers from RIPE though.
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sput

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2012, 01:55:04 AM »

Hi there


It's the 5th now.
I stick to mid october.


Regards,
Rob
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sput

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2012, 08:25:53 AM »

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kasperd

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2012, 08:43:40 AM »

RIPE just depleted
That surprise me. I was expecting them to last half a week more. Did somebody submit a legitimate request for a /12 or did a lot of people realize they'd better hurry up and submit requests while there were still addresses to be had?
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broquea

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #13 on: September 14, 2012, 09:09:11 AM »

Chatting with someone that had a request in for a /21 before this announcement, they got told by RIPE today that all current requests are canceled, and they have to apply for /22 now.
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kasperd

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Re: IPv4 depletion parties
« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2012, 11:28:57 AM »

they got told by RIPE today that all current requests are canceled, and they have to apply for /22 now.
That sounds sensible. The criteria for receiving a /22 now is not the same as the criteria for receiving addresses before. So the existing request might not apply anymore. And the extra delay introduced by this isn't going to mean that you aren't getting the /22. Those remaining /22s should last a while.

But wasn't there some RIR that would still process applications, and instead of receiving addresses, you'd receive the right to buy them at market price, if there is a seller?
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